Inadvertent perioperative hypothermia, defined as a core body temperature lower than 36.0℃, is common in the perioperative period and may be associated with adverse effects. Shoulder arthroscopy is a well-established technique in dealing with a variety of shoulder disorders. During the operation, a large amount of irrigation fluid is required to ensure clear visibility. Considering the shoulder joint is quite close to the core body structure, the irrigation fluid temperature could adversely affect the core body temperature, resulting in hypothermia-related problems. Accurate risk assessment of individuals may help physicians identify patients at the risk of hypothermia and take preventive measures. However, there is no specific risk assessment tool for shoulder arthroscopy.

To establish a risk prediction model of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy and to test its predictive effect.

From January 2019 to July 2020, a total of 261 patients were conveniently selected as study objects in our hospital. The patients who received shoulder arthroscopy were divided into the modeling group (January 2019 to December 2019, n=174) and the verification group (January 2020 to July 2020, n=87) . Variables were screened by univariate analysis, and the model was established by Logistic regression.Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was carried out, and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive effect of the model.

The incidence of intraoperative hypothermia was 56.32% (98/174) in the modeling group and 42.53% (37/87) in the verification group. The ultimate model included three predictors: basal body temperature (OR=0.033) , anesthesia duration (OR=1.002) and BMI (OR=0.845) . Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P=0.377, AUC: 0.858, Youden index: 0.603, sensitivity: 0.735, and specificity: 0.868. The accuracy of model verification is 83.84%.

The model established in this study has a good predictive effect and can provide a reference for clinical evaluation of intraoperative hypothermia in patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy.